US Forecast for Violent Atlantic Hurricane Season — 10 Months Ahead

Interactive Statues: Memorable Times

This year, with Hurricane Florence and Tropical Storm Michael, will be remembered for this cycle of mega storms.

But for the next 10 months, the year 2021 may be the most critical of all.

For the future, the Atlantic basin is expected to get a fifth season since 2012, meaning 2018 will be jolted by large and damaging storms. But scientists warn the tropical Atlantic is more likely to be unlucky than unlucky.

Researchers say if you have a dry year for the Atlantic — what is known as an El Niño — the next year tends to be more active.

“All of the evidence points to an elevated risk of a damaging storm system making landfall in the US,” said Steve Goldstein, the director of NOAA’s National Hurricane Center.

Of the next 10 months, the summer months would be the best bet, Mr. Goldstein said.

But it’s not likely to be boring: 2017 and 2018 have been extremely active years.

(US – Canadian hurricane database)

Our earlier article featured 20 hurricane (SOB) years over the last 20 years. It is important to note that the actual year total of 20 is thanks to the fact that 2011 was an SOB.

It is included here to highlight how sensitive the Atlantic basin can be to El Niño when, as the names suggest, it does and may happen again.

READ NEXT: New data show that extreme weather is not random

Disaster Expectations (based on WPC)*

This “extended assessment” of disaster experience suggests 2021 will be a very bad year.

Statements on “substantial losses” are graphic:

0 deaths: SOB

7 deaths: SOB-3, SOB-4, SOB-5, SOB-6, SOB-7, SOB-8, SOB-9

90,000+ “lost economic output” (DEX): SOB

66,000+ “lost lives” (probably in 2017): SOB

*NOAA’s Special Interest Group for Lowest Probability – High Impact Events (SIGLE); NHC’s ACE/PACE State Indicators; National Trends in Average Index Value of El Niño and La Niña Events (National Climatic Data Center; Photo Credits: NOAA)

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